When you delete files, they first end up in a "waste bin". So you can recover them. It is unfortunately not available from Share, in Alfresco Explorer you can navigate to your profile and permanently delete them. Admin can delete for all users.
When deleted, they will be moved in your back end store from alf_data/contentstore to alf_data/contentstore.deleted around 4am (do not rememver exact time, around that hour) each day
contentstore.deleted you will have to manually empty, or delete files older thant x days. You can skip this folder in your backup if you want to.
So your observation is correct, backup size will grow over time if you do not delete items, first permanently in Alfresco Explorer, then from contentstore.deleted.